Experts: President Aliyev?s reelection in Azerbaijan ?suitable? for Armenia

Yerevan-based experts on Azerbaijan believe that reelection of the neighboring republic?s incumbent president Ilham Aliyev in next week?s ballot will indeed be beneficial for Armenia. They say Aliyev is the ?most predictable? out of the candidates vying for the top post in Azerbaijan and despite his war rhetoric is unlikely to resort to a military adventure.

Earlier, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan also spoke in favor of a scenario with Aliyev?s reelection. During a meeting with students in August Sargsyan, in particular, said that for Armenia it would perhaps be most suitable if incumbent President Ilham Aliyev won.

?Armenia, and not only Armenia, is interested in the neighbors which have taken the democratic path of development. Thus, when it comes to a neighbor, especially to a partner in negotiations, Armenia in invariably interested in a democratic Azerbaijan. However if we disregard that fact for a moment, the answer to the question is the following: we?d rather see President Ilham Aliyev win. We have been going through a tough and long process of negotiations, and if we outline the framework for the solution of the problem it will at least contain the public endorsement of the principles proposed by the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group. They have been actively negotiated for the last four years. Certainly, I wouldn?t say that the process is very lively now, nevertheless a certain progress has been made, and if after the elections President Aliyev is able to display political will and to rise above his fanatical Armenophobia, I believe that would be the most acceptable choice for us,? said Sargsyan.

Expert on Azerbaijan Sargis Asatryan says that despite Aliyev?s war rhetoric, under Aliyev?s rule Azerbaijan has become one of the most corrupt states in the world, it has many problems in the army, and, therefore, instability in the neighboring hostile country is beneficial to Armenia.

?If someone comes and puts everything in order there, that would not be that easy for Armenia. There is a huge flow of petrodollars, and if this flow is directed to the right path and the economy develops not only at the expense of the oil sector, naturally Azerbaijan will grow stronger, because, after all, it has several times higher potential as compared to Armenia both in human and financial resources. But the longer the internal instable situation continues in Azerbaijan, the more beneficial it is for Armenia,? says Asatryan.

Ten candidates are taking part in the presidential election in Azerbaijan scheduled for October 9. Incumbent President Aliyev?s main rival is the single opposition candidate Jamil Hasanli, who has been nominated from the National Front of Democratic Forces. Earlier, Moscow-based well-known writer and film director Rustam Ibrahimbekov had made a bid to run against Aliyev, but because of problems with dual citizenship he was disqualified and denied registration as a candidate in Azerbaijan. The opposition then decided to field Hasanli instead of Ibrahimbekov.

Hasanli, according to Asatryan, is known for his anti-Armenian stance and is the author of a number of pieces that largely distort history.

Aliyev has been at the helm of Azerbaijan?s government since 2003 when his father, longtime ruler in communist and then independent Azerbaijan, died. He is most likely to be elected for a third consecutive five-year term on October 9.

During the current election campaign in Azerbaijan violence has been reported against opposition members, journalists, many activists have been arrested on various charges. And one televised debate among candidates (not attended by the incumbent president) ended in a quarrel: Modern Musavat Party chairman Hafiz Hajiyev threw a water bottle on the main opposition candidate Hasanli. Their heated argument, by the way, concerned Nagorno-Karabakh, as Hajiyev blamed people like Hasanli for the loss of what Azerbaijan regards as its province.

Hajiyev, who by the way, is known for his scandalous behavior, has promised that if he comes to power he will solve the Karabakh problem within just six months.

But expert Asatryan says that while the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the important subjects in the presidential election debate in Azerbaijan, the positions of the other candidates do not significantly differ from that of Aliyev. They have said that if the matter is not resolved through diplomatic channels, they are ready ?to restore the constitution of Azerbaijan and re-establish control over Nagorno-Karabakh.?

According to Asatryan, a change of power in Azerbaijan at this moment is almost impossible, as the entire administrative resource is in the hands of Aliyev and he is doing everything to be reelected. Besides, the expert says, there is no charismatic leader within the Azeri opposition that would be able to gather a revolutionary electorate around him.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/an_issue_eng/~3/DYqQR87N9YQ/azerbaijan_presidential_elections_ilham_aliyev

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