A look at 4 surprise teams, and analysis on whether they have a chance
APLinebacker Tim Dobbins and the Texans should win the AFC South if they keep playing at their current level and can stay at or above .500 until November, writes Mike Tanier.
ANALYSIS
updated 11:56 a.m. ET Sept. 22, 2011
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Is there anything more boring and predictable than those ?Is the 2-0 team for real?? articles?
You?ve read them. I?ve written them. They start with some team off to a surprising 2-0 start, often a last-place team from the previous season. They offer a cherry-picked storyline or two, voice some straw-man objections, then declare the team ?for real? (fuh-real, if you say it out loud) or a ?fraud? (fuh-rawd). Three weeks later, everyone forgets what was written, and no one cares.
What the heck does ?for real? mean, anyway? Is anyone picking the Lions to reach the Super Bowl? Of course not. But they have inserted themselves into the very early playoff picture, as have other surprise challengers like the Bills, Texans and Redskins. All of these teams have made great strides since last year, but what happens next has as much to do with each team?s schedule and division as with how much they have improved. As good as the Bills may be, it is silly to say they are ?for real? when the Patriots and Jets still block their path to the division crown, or that they are ?frauds? because a tough schedule could leave them at .500.
So this is no ?for real? story: it?s an honest look at four 2-0 teams, their strengths and weaknesses, and what how their upcoming schedules will affect their futures.
Bills
Strengths: Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a natural fit in Chan Gailey?s system. Fred Jackson (a league-leading 229 rushing yards) finally has the starting job to himself after years of playing second-fiddle to Marshawn Lynch and C.J. Spiller. The defense, which had trouble switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense last year, is much less mistake prone than it was last year.
Weaknesses: On defense, improvement is relative. Despite the additions of Shawne Merriman, Nick Barnett, Kirk Morrison and rookie Marcell Dareus, the Bills have recorded just two sacks in two weeks and are allowing 5.0 yards per rush. Fitzpatrick and Jackson have enjoyed brief hot streaks in the past; it is hard to believe that they have taken a major step forward at this point in their careers.
The Future: AFC East teams face the NFC East, so the Bills must cope with the Eagles, Giants and improved Redskins and Cowboys in addition to their regular tormentors, the Jets and Patriots. If they can go .500 in those eight games, they can stay in the wild card hunt. Sunday?s Patriots game will be a bellwether. If they win or hang close, they can keep things interesting all year.
Lions
Strengths: Matthew Stafford is healthy and running a shotgun-based offense that has allowed him to spread the ball to 10 different receivers in the first two games. The pass defense has picked off four passes and is holding opponents to just 9.1 yards per reception. Calvin Johnson makes first-and-goal from the 2-yard line a passing down.
Weaknesses: Like the Bills, the Lions suffer from Chiefs fatigue: beating up on the Chiefs has been so easy in the early going that it is hard to draw conclusions from the Bills? and Lions? victories. It?s like winning a wrestling match against a mannequin. The Lions are thin at running back behind Jahvid Best and have no power-running presence, which can be a problem in the NFC North when the weather gets cold.
The Future: The Lions have two division games and a trip to Dallas in the next three weeks. If they go 2-1, they must be taken seriously as wild card contenders. The early-season sputters of the Vikings and Bears could help the Lions considerably. If the Vikings keep coughing up leads in the second half and the Bears stick with the 5-to-1 pass-run ratio, the Lions will have no trouble sliding into second place.
Texans
Strengths: New coordinator Wade Philips and acquisitions such as cornerback Jonathan Joseph have improved the defense significantly. Philips? 3-4 scheme has opened things up for pass rusher Mario Williams, and opponents are completing just 45.1 percent of their passes against the Texans secondary. The offense is as effective as ever, with Matt Schaub completing 71.7 percent of his passes and Ben Tate proving a more-than-adequate temporary replacement for running back Arian Foster.
Weaknesses: Opponents average 4.9 yards per rush against Phillips? defense. The victory over the Kerry Collins Colts, while impressive, was the Texans? version of a Chiefs win. The Colts were so unprepared and discouraged that it was hard to tell where Colts badness stopped and Texans goodness started.
The Future: The Texans are the only team on this list with an unobstructed shot at a division crown, thanks to the Peyton Manning injury and the Jaguars? tomfoolery at quarterback. A trip to New Orleans this week, followed by a visit from the Steelers, could cool them off, but a 2-2 record is no reason to panic: the late-season schedule is pretty soft, and the Texans should win the division if they keep playing at this level and can stay at or above .500 until November.
Redskins
Strengths: Jim Haslett?s defense has registered seven sacks and produced some momentum-changing big plays (see Ryan Kerrigan?s interception return touchdown against the Giants). The Rex Grossman-led passing game has not been a disaster, and the Tim Hightower-Ray Helu backfield committee looks strong. The soap opera silliness of last year is long gone.
Weaknesses: Kicker Graham Gano has already missed two short field goals, one of them blocked. Haslett has been coasting on reputation for years, and his defenses tend to fall to the bottom of the middle of the pack in most categories. Opponents have committed three times more penalties than the Redskins (18 to 6), which may be a sign of clean, smart football but more likely indicates that some random factors have not yet evened themselves out.
The Future: The Redskins have all the makings of a team that tails off by midseason, but the Giants? injury-a-day schedule, the Cowboys? ramshackle offensive line and the Eagles? sloppiness could create opportunities in the NFC East for a team that wins with ball control and fundamentals. The Redskins will have to rack up some wins against other surprise teams such as the Bills and Panthers on the road in October, because December brings a brutal Jets-Patriots-at Giants-Vikings-at Eagles stretch sure to kill off a .500 team hoping for a late surge.
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Mike Tanier writes for NBCSports.com and Rotoworld.com and is a senior writer for Football Outsiders.
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Tanier: Here is an honest look at four "surprise" 2-0 teams, their strengths and weaknesses, and what how their upcoming schedules will affect their futures.
Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/44625540/ns/sports-nfl/
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